Despite widespread belief to the contrary, global homicide rates have steadily declined since 2000. New data from the World Bank reveals that between 2000 and 2023, the international homicide rate fell from approximately 6.9 deaths per 100,000 people to around 5.2 per 100,000. This represents a roughly 25% decrease in the probability of being murdered, even as the global population has grown.
The Persistent Misconception
Public perception consistently lags behind reality. A 2023 IPSOS survey found that 70% of respondents across 30 countries believe the world is becoming more violent. In the US, polls have consistently shown majorities believing violent crime is rising since the 1990s, despite evidence suggesting otherwise. This disconnect between perception and reality highlights a significant “narrative violation” – a situation where popular belief contradicts actual data.
Historical Context: Violence Was Far Worse
The decline in modern homicide rates is particularly striking when viewed historically. Research into medieval violence reveals significantly higher rates than today. In 14th-century London and York, homicide rates reached 20–25 per 100,000 people, while Oxford saw rates as high as 100 per 100,000. This stark contrast demonstrates that modern society, despite its perceived dangers, is far safer than its past.
The Factors Behind the Decline
Several key factors drive the global reduction in violence:
- Strengthened State Capacity: Improved judicial systems, less corrupt police forces, and predictable legal frameworks make it harder for criminals to operate with impunity.
- Data-Driven Policing: Targeted law enforcement strategies focusing on high-crime hotspots and repeat offenders have proven more effective than broad crackdowns.
- Policy Changes: Stricter gun control measures and gang truces contribute to reduced violence in some regions, such as Brazil, where homicides fell by 25% between 2012 and 2024.
- Demographic Shifts: The aging of populations is a significant but often overlooked factor. Younger demographics are statistically more prone to violent crime, and as societies age, violence tends to decline.
Regional Disparities Remain
Despite the global trend, violence remains highly concentrated. The Americas and Africa still experience disproportionately high homicide rates – roughly 150 and 127 per million people, respectively – compared to Europe or East Asia. Within these regions, specific cities like Port-au-Prince (Haiti) and Colima (Mexico) face extreme levels of violence, with homicide rates reaching triple digits per 100,000 in some areas.
The Bottom Line
The world has become demonstrably safer over the past two decades. While challenges persist, data confirms a significant decline in global homicide rates. This trend underscores the importance of accurate narratives over ingrained perceptions and suggests that, despite fears of increasing chaos, humanity is slowly but steadily making it harder to kill each other.
